[USER]

If you put £15000 in the sp500 for 10 years. How much on average should you expect to have at 10 years compounding?

Assuming an average annual return based on historical performance, what could the final amount be, and what factors should I consider in this estimation?

[Sihing]

Expect is entirely the wrong word in my view. Past data will give you some idea of what happened in the past but can’t predict the next 10 years.

It also shows that over a 10 year time frame you have roughly 5% chance of it being worth less than you started with.

The longer the time frame the closer to zero that likelihood becomes, but you’re talking longer than 10 years to make it close to zero.

[Brian]

No one knows. You can go back to the past and look at 10 year increments, but that doesn’t necessarily predict the future.

Some 10 year periods it went down.

[Teala]

Hard to tell the future could be -222% could be 222%. I just use the lowest average and round down.

However considering the market swings maybe you look at year by year and consider it’s a presidential year and time since last recession…

guessing can get as complicated as you want but just guess about 10% with reinvestment of the dividends.

Back in the 1990 to early 2000s workplace retirement representatives used 8%.

[Ryan]

On average, the S&P doubles every 7 years. The next 7 years may not be average.

Could be better, could be worse.

[Author]

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